Editorial Reviews
Product Description
The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point short book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be worse than the 1930s, beginning nominally in 2012, but perhaps as early as 2009-2010 and lasting up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered. October 2007 Update: In 2002 when this book was published, in addition to the massive depression beginning around the end of the decade, it forecast:
1. The economy, as reflected by the DJIA, would resume its upwards march in late 2002 or 2003. This is exactly what happened.
2. The DJIA would have a snapback to 13,000 to 14,000 and the FTSE to 6,000 to 7,000 by 2004, but delayed possibly by wars/politics/terrorism/scandals. This is exactly what has happened. Although the full snapback has been delayed for the reasons described, the DJIA has now closed over 14,100 and the FTSE over 6,700.
3. The DJIA returns from 2003 to 2012 would average a historically long-term normal of 7% to 8%. So far, with the delayed full snapback for the reasons described, DJIA actual returns have averaged a more modest 5.8%, as would be expected.
4. Interest rates would increase from 2003 onwards. This is exactly what has happened.
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Customer Reviews Read 47 more reviews...
Right for the Wrong Reasons January 3, 2009
Laurie M. Papas
This book attempts to use demographics to explain the boom and busts of the past. It uses lots of facts in layman's terms to support its demographic argument. While a lot of the book is very thought provoking, it fails to take into account the number one reason for deep recessions and depressions - and that is easy credit based on funny money (e.g.: Federal Reserve Notes - yes the stuff we use today). The bank note credit squeeze of 1837, the Long Depression of the 1890's, and the Great Depression of the 1930's were all preceded by a credit boom and market bubbles created through the use of fake money (money not backed by an asset). While this country was on a gold standard prior to 1933, previous depressions were caused by banks lending out credit when they had no real money to back it up.
Today I think the author is right, but for the wrong reasons. We now have a pure fiat currency, which can only create money out of worthless paper. Hyperinflation will be the solution to the deflation the FED is currently trying to fight. Gold will most likely spike above $1,200 by 2010, but gold and silver is not mentioned as a hedge in the book.
Don't get me wrong, demographics DO play a major role in the cycles of an economy, but the great bust needs more than just people getting old, it needs a credit bubble. Unfortunately the FED created the bubble, so the authors are probably dead right - just not for the right reason.
The Forgotten Man December 2, 2008
Donald D. Luhn (Alexandria, VA USA)
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
The book is excellant and provides detailed perspective on how the 1929 depression was extended by the misguided policies of Hoover and FDR. As someone with the middle name of Delano, it sure dispells the myth that FDR is a great American hero.
Very logical description of the BIG PICTURE November 14, 2008
John Brailsford (Las Vegas, NV)
2 out of 2 found this review helpful
I thought this book was very informative and logical. I think that the "experts" sometimes get lost in the details and completely ignore the BIG PICTURE. It's like they are laying sandbags along a swelling river in front of them and ignoring the growing leaks in the big dam behind them. I realize that this is not an exact science, but the author seems to recognize that as well. Given recent events, he is looking pretty smart right now.
Though the thought of a coming bust is troubling in some ways, I found this book to offer some hope. The author not only outlines the reasons for the coming downturn but offers good ideas for avoiding financial catastrophe. I only wish that I had read it a few years ago.
Time is short November 3, 2008
M. Keane (USA)
2 out of 2 found this review helpful
Reasonable theory with his demographic studies. Takes one hour to read and can be very helpful to your financial planning, if in fact the baby boomers can affect the economy like he says.
What this book predicted in 2002 is happening now. October 9, 2008
justice (NY, NY)
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
This book may save your life's savings. Please read it. Kudos to the courageous author for writing this remarkable book, and for giving common people timely and fair warning for what lies ahead. We need more people like Mr. Arnold, who makes this world a better place.
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