2nd edition (2000) with Johns Downes, 259 pages

O'Higgins' basic method for selecting out of favour stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Average can be explained in a single sentence: list the ten stocks from the Dow with the highest dividend yield, and then select the five with the lowest share prices from these ten. Buy an equal weighting in each of them and after one year, sell and start again.

So you could be forgiven for wondering how he manages to fill a book. I found significant chunks to be of little interest in understanding why and how his method has worked. For example, I didn't find his introduction on why stocks are the best long term investments, or his potted history of each of the Dow constituents (which takes up just under half the book) added much. (The history of the Dow stocks also reads as if at least the updates for the 2nd edition were written in a considerable hurry.) However, if you are new to equity investing these parts may be more useful to you. Even so, I cannot understand why O'Higgins included the addresses for each of the Dow stocks in the main body of the book when his method is a mechanical one which requires that you do not do any specific stock research or have any contact with companies.

I bought this book with a particular aim in mind: to understand the background better to see how it could be applied in the UK. For example, some people try to apply it to the FTSE 100 and others to the FT 30 index and others use the lowest market capitalisation rather than the lowest share price as the second filter.

After reading the book I concluded that the FT 30 index with lower share prices (i.e. with minimum changes to O'Higgins' original method for the Dow) would be most appropriate. This is because the FT 30 index is modelled on the Dow and has greater stability than the FTSE 100. Even so, there are differences between the FT 30 index and the Dow, which might mean there is greater specific stock risk in the FT 30 (for example, FT 30 stocks are only replaced if they are taken over or fail, whereas Dow stocks can be replaced by the editors of the Wall Street Journal).

Regarding the choice of low share price or low market capitalisation for the second filter, O'Higgins specifically states that the most relevant factor is "simply the phenomenon that the less expensive a stock is, the more it is prone to greater percentage moves." O'Higgins also believes UK companies are more prone to cutting their dividends in difficult periods compared to US companies and that this may mean a mechanical method based upon dividends would work less well in the UK.

Anyway, notwithstanding my gripes above about the padding in the book, the good parts are very good and the book carries an excellent central thesis: that simplicity not only entails less work, but also often produces better results.

By the end of the book I also understood why the method is likely to continue working. Historically the method did not work every year (for example during the last few years of the dot com boom), but produced good results over the long term. As O'Higgins states: "It's the occasional off-year that allows anomalies, like the strategies we'll be discussing next, to exist." The second, critical factor is that the method automatically enforces a contrarian discipline. I like the way O'Higgins puts it:

"In an investment world addicted to complexity, it can almost be said that keeping it simple is itself a form of contrarianism. It can certainly be said that for a system like mine to become too popular to work, contrarianism would have to become conventional wisdom. That would mean turning human nature on its head."

This book simply suggests listing the 30 Dow components and then buying the lowest price stocks in the group that also has the best yield (Dividend %).You skip the lowest priced because that one probably does have issues versus being a value. You can either put your $5000 in the second to lowest priced with the best yield, or the 2nd-6th stocks, or the 2nd to 11th stocks that are the lowest priced with the best yield. He shows the back tested history of this method as delivering huge gains. It is a system to think about or use it to develop your own.
The biggest thing I got out of this book was the direction to read books by Yale Hirsh. This was very profitable for me to discover the November-May stock market pattern, the presidential election cycle and the days of the week. You must read The Almanac Investor(by his son), it is VERY valuable, I made $10,000 from Sept 1st 2006 to Dec 9th 2006 due to my aggressive stance in November and December.

O'Higgins writes nicely... and identifies with specificity one generally agreeable style of mechanical stock investing... it doesn't particularly work well recently... but it is a useful text to introduce the idea of rule-based (non-emotional) trading decision making. assumptions of money management particularly out of phase with first tier thinking.. but i like the book.

"Beating The Dow" by Michael O'Higgins offers the following simple investment strategy. You simply buy the ten highest dividend paying stocks among the Dow Industrial Averages. The Philosophy is that as the value of the stocks increase, via stock price lagging or falling below the market, the dividend yield will tend to rise. (i.e. the assumption is that dividend yield is a proxy for value. One problem is that not all Dow stocks pay out the same level of earnings, so some stocks will tend to have higher dividends.)

While I tend to be skeptical of any investment strategy that is too simple, if you must use such a simple strategy, then you could do far worse selecting the highest dividend paying stocks from the Dow. Of course, the other option is just to index your money in a mutual fund that buys the entire stock market. Vanguard Funds is the leader in such index funds. But, I like dividends.

The difficulty with simple investment strategies is that they tend to be arrived at via data mining. The proponent of the investment method asks "What worked in the past?" and then tries to draw up a canned investment method. Almost always, the proposed method then starts to lag behind in the present and future stock market performance. (the recent performance of this strategy is discussed in another person's great book review. See that.) This is not due to market efficiency or that the method is becoming well known. It just means that the method wasn't entirely valid as a predictive method.

There is the old joke about the "X investment strategy." When a computer was asked to vigorously evaluate the stock market and look for predictors of future investment success, the computer spit back the answer, "Invest in stocks whose name begins with an 'X' and whose name ends with an 'X.' " Xerox was the top performing stock over the period.

"Beating The Dow" is one of those books, if read all by itself, might mislead a new investor into an over-simplified investment strategy. Yet, you might enjoy reading it. And, as stated, you could do worse than holding the ten highest dividend-paying Dow stocks.

"Beating The Dow" also mentions what Michael O'Higgins calls the "Penulatimate Profit Prospect (PPP)" which involves buying just one stock. The Stock with the second lowest price among the ten highest yielding stocks. I consider that Penidiotic. We conservative investors do love our stock dividends, and the focus on dividend yield gets "Beating The Dow" a solid honorable mention.

Peter Hupalo, Author of "Becoming An Investor: Building Wealth By Investing In Stocks, Bonds, And Mutual Funds."

Michael O'Higgin's investing classic holds up as well in the New Millenium as it did when it first hit book stands 10 years ago.

He maintains that it is still possible to beat the DOW by buying the 10 highest yielding stocks and tweaking your holdings each year, with correspondingly greater rates of return with a two- or five-stock selection from the group. O'Higgin's admits in the new eidtion that the strategy has been muddied by a drop in the relative importance of dividends as a part of total yield of the DOW. Dividends and payouts have lost lost out to stock buybacks, in part because dividends are taxed at a higher rate than long-term capital gains from stock sales. Changes in the DOW have also reduced the overall dividend payout. Of the most recent additions, Microsoft pays no dividend and Intel and Home Depot have nominal payouts. O'Higgin's strategy may also be less effective because it's simplicity and past returns attracted the attention of Wall Street money managers and of many, many individual investors. There is at least one web site devoted to the Dogs of the Dow and a number of similar investment strategies were profiled for several years on the Motley Fool website.

Nor is the most valuable part of O'Higgin's book his thumbnail sketches of other value strategies for beating the market with a basket of DOW stocks. Several seem downright ridiculous. I remain skeptical that investing based on presidential election cycles or end-of-year asset sales by fund managers can yield meaningful, long-term results for individual investors.

The value of this book is O'Higgin's championing of value investing in general and his highlighting of the resilience of the DOW stocks in markets bull and bear. Most people aren't professional investors and lack the time and resources to profit from a strategy of active trading. If the efficient markets guys are right, then buying all 30 DOW stocks and holding on long-term will beat returns of most professionally baskets of stocks, with less risk and less payouts for taxes and trading costs to boot. Or maybe buying the highest yielders in any given year and holding. Anyway, you get the picture.

Regardless of whether you think the high-yield 10 is still capable of outgaining the overall DOW, O'Higgin's book is, to me, as valuable in 2001 as it was when I first read it in 1993.